The Ecnomist Article: Tomorrow's burden

FT Article: Bets rise on rich country bond defaults

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	The following email has been sent to you by info@reibellecapital.com Bets rise on rich country bond defaults By David Oakley in London Published: November 22 2009 18:27 | Last updated: November 22 2009 18:27 The mounting level of debt in the industrialised world is prompting a growing number of investors to use the derivatives market to bet on the chance of rich governments defaulting on bonds. The volume of activity in sovereign credit default swaps – which measure the cost to insure against bond defaults – linked to the US, UK and Japan have doubled in the past year because of concerns about their public finances. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web. This article can be found at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4f9a4f0-d791-11de-b578-00144feabdc0,_i_email=y.html
 
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FT Article: Down but not out

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	The following email has been sent to you by info@reibellecapital.com Down but not out By Krishna Guha Published: October 18 2009 18:15 | Last updated: October 18 2009 18:15 When finance ministers and central bank governors met in Istanbul this month amid angst about the declining dollar, Tim Geithner was anxious to impart a basic message. "We recognise the dollar's important role in the system conveys special burdens and responsibilities on the US," the Treasury secretary told journalists. "And we're going to do everything necessary to sustain confidence." Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web. This article can be found at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d74ccef6-bc06-11de-9426-00144feab49a,_i_email=y.html
 
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FT Article: Japan sovereign debt crisis looms

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	Japan sovereign debt crisis looms By Edward Chancellor Published: November 1 2009 11:40 | Last updated: November 1 2009 11:40 For two centuries, banking crises have generally been followed by a pick-up in sovereign debt defaults. These problems normally afflicted developing economies. Today, however, the public finances of most emerging markets are in pretty robust shape. By contrast, the fiscal afflicted position of the older industrialised nations is poor. Their government debt burdens are larger and economic growth prospects dimmer. Among these countries, Japan's problems look particularly acute. As Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff observe in their newly published history of government debt crises,This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, credit crunches tend to interrupt international capital flows, leaving emerging market borrowers unable to roll over their debts. Over the past decade, however, the largest developing nations have acted as creditors rather than borrowers. As a result, they have accumulated large foreign exchange reserves. The IMF calculates that among the emerging countries in the G-20, the average ratio of government debt to GDP is about 40 per cent. For instance, Russia, which last defaulted in 1998, has debts of less than 10 per cent of GDP. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web. This article can be found at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a03a61e-c585-11de-9b3b-00144feab49a,_i_email=y.html
 
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[Book Review]This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

★★★★☆
”There is nothing new except what is forgotten”- Rose Bertin
最終章(第17章)が収められている第四部のテーマ”What have we learned?”の下に、このローズ・ベルタン(ルイ16世の王妃マリー・アントワネットに仕えたデザイナーらしい)の言葉が添えられているのがユーモラスである。
タイトルの”This time is different”「今回は違う」は勿論反語的に使われており、好景気の時でも今回のような未曾有の世界経済危機からの脱却の際でも「今回は(これまでとは)違う」という種々のもっともらしい理由が喧伝されるが、膨大なデータに基き過去数世紀に渡る世界の債務不履行や金融危機の歴史を紐解いてみると、「今回は違うシンドローム」の信憑性は疑わしく、世界経済の先行きを楽観するのは全く時期尚早であり、むしろデータから読み取れる「歴史は繰り返す」ということを充分に念頭においておく必要があると本書は警鐘している。
その例として、14章に纏めてある興味深い数字を幾つか紹介すると(対象期間は殆どが第二次世界大戦後の世界中の経済危機で一部戦前の大恐慌時のケースを含む。数字は経済危機発生前のピーク時と危機発生後の底値の差を示したもの)、
■住宅価格は平均すると6年間に渡り下落し平均下落率は▲35.5%
■同株価下落は平均で3.4年間に渡り平均下落率は▲55.9%
■同失業率は平均で4.8年間に及び平均上昇率は+7%
また、政府債務といえば、これ迄は、データの入手が極めて困難であるという事情もあってか、対外債務にのみ焦点が当てられることが多かったようであるが、著者達は世界各国の国内の債務状況に関するデータも整理したうえで、これらの影響は無視できないとしている。
非常に広範囲で長期に渡るデータを整理したうえでの実証研究であり読み応えがあると共に、膨大なデータから過去を検証して、そこから読み取れることをベースにした謙虚な提言の書である。